The resilience in the latter half of the previous year sets a foundation for cautious optimism, albeit amidst lingering challenges and potential turbulence. The anticipated steady global GDP growth of at least 3.1% y/y, in addition to a gradual decline in average global inflation, offers a glimpse of hope for Nigeria's macroeconomic trajectory. Labor market trends, inflation dynamics, investment patterns, and trade dynamics all play pivotal roles in shaping Nigeria's 2024 macroeconomic outlook.
In Nigeria, inflation is expected to remain elevated closing at 27.5% y/y (in our base-case scenario), driven by persistent factors such as insecurity, foreign exchange depreciation, and the impact of the removal of PMS subsidy, among others. Despite moderate dips, these expected fluctuations are largely attributed to statistical reasons (i.e., base effects) rather than improvements in supply-side dynamics or the successful mitigation of demand-pull inflation.

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