Slow GDP points to MPR rate hold

Q1 2021 GDP was reported on Sunday evening and showed the growth rate at 0.51% year-on-year (y/y). This was better than the 0.11% y/y growth of Q4 but Q1 2021's non-oil growth was actually slower than Q4 (+0.79% y/y against +1.69% y/y). Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is increasingly vocal about the need to combat inflation, we think that, in view of weak growth, it will stop short of raising its 11.50% Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at the conclusion of its meeting tomorrow afternoon.

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